CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-07-18T23:05:27Z
## Message ID: 20240718-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-07-16T23:23Z.

Estimated speed: ~853 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 22 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -17/7 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001

2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-07-16T23:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~538 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 43 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -3/-14 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001

3: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-07-17T07:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~488 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 25 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 27/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-07-17T07:48:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, and STEREO A.  The combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-07-20T18:56Z, Parker Solar Probe at 2024-07-18T07:37Z, and STEREO A at 2024-07-19T15:11Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-19T13:30Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 4-6 (below minor to moderate).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001, 2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001, 2024-07-17T07:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240717_050300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

The CME event with ID 2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001 is associated with an M1.9 flare from Active Region 13744 (N18W11) with ID 2024-07-16T21:46:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-16T22:06Z.

The CME event with ID 2024-07-17T07:48:00-CME-001 is associated with an M5.0 flare from Active Region 13743 (S10W30) with ID 2024-07-17T06:26:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-07-17T06:39Z (see notifications 20240717-AL-001 and 20240717-AL-002).

The CME event with ID 2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001 was previously simulated separately and predicted to affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and NASA missions near Earth based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240717-AL-004).

The CME events with IDs 2024-07-16T23:23:00-CME-001 and 2024-07-16T23:12:00-CME-001 were previously simulated together in a 2-CME simulation and predicted to affect Lucy, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and NASA missions near Earth based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240717-AL-005).

The CME event with ID 2024-07-17T07:48:00-CME-001 was previously simulated separately and predicted to affect Lucy (glancing blow), Parker Solar Probe, STEREO A, and NASA missions near Earth (glancing blow) based on previous heliospheric modeling. 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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